“In thirty days there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put social distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.
Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just calculated by the current population of your city and you will be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY who will be infected 30 days from now.”
I frankly don’t get this part. At all. What if you live in a city with 500 people versus someone in a city with 3 million? Additionally, this math experiment started from an arbitrary number to begin with.
Let’s look at real numbers. It’s worth noting that China and South Korea are nearing a flat-lining on growth of cases. Note, they did take some extreme measures to achieve this, so social distancing is wisdom well heeded, in most respects. China’s first case was Dec 1, about 3.5 months ago. Scroll down and see China and South Korea at around 80,881 and 8,320 confirmed cases, respectively. Those numbers have hardly moved for days.
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Additionally, less than 1–2% will die.
NY Times: “Because we’re testing only the sickest of the sick, the American fatality rate from the coronavirus is roughly 4 percent. It’s a frightening and highly deceptive number, even higher than China’s. (Most experts predict it’s likely to wind up at 0.5 percent, which is five times more deadly than the typical flu, and it could be as high as 1 percent.)”
Amesh Adalja (infectious disease specialist at Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security) on Sam Harris’ March 11 broadcast said the death rate for COVID-19 could be as low as .1 percent.