What’s wrong with speaking the truth to Americans?

I Was Going to Consider Pete Buttigieg for President, But He Flat Out Lies About Crime

The Washington Post & Major Media Again Covers Up for the False Narrative that the Criminal Justice System is Racist, Even When Politicians Exaggerate by Four Times

My view from Hiroshima’s no Oyado Capsule Hotel. A fine place to stay.
Source: Pew Research
  • 100 black individuals commit any act of violence and are arrested. The result in Buttigieg’s world: 20 are imprisoned.
  • 100 white individuals commit any act of violence and are arrested. The result in Buttigieg’s world: 5 are imprisoned.
IMAGE SOURCE: The Washington Post

UPDATE: By 2020, murders will have spiked 50% in just six years, with nearly a 30% increase from 2019 to 2020. This has coincided with a massive media-driven and political attack on our criminal justice system, and society writ large, as being inherently racist. Many say — including this author —these conditions create a Ferguson Effect leading to far more suffering on the streets than the criminal justice system ever could. For example 2020 had more than 10,000 murders of African Americans, but less than 20 of those were by police when the individual was unarmed.

As reported at the height of Black Lives Matter protests in 2014, the U.K’s Channel 4 offered a rare fact-based analysis on crime and stated racism is clearly not driving large black-white disparities: “But academics have noted that the proportion of black suspects arrested by the police tends to match closely the proportion of offenders identified as black by victims in the National Crime Victimization Survey.”

I like to call this “The New Brainwashing.”
Trump once re-Tweeted this racist and inaccurate meme in 2015 while running for president, and soon deleted it. And I called him out more than once for it.
Aggravated and firearm assaults are half as high as robbery and murder offender disparities. Note the assault rate is 4 times larger for blacks compared to whites. (Interesting discovery I found in a Columbia University Economics paper via Wikipedia: For every 12 times a black person robs a white person there will be 1 robbery of a black person by a white person.) SOURCE: FBI Crime Report
Notice how the Washington Post states sentencing disparities of 5.5–19.5% and not 400%, as Pete Buttigieg claimed in his comments July 4. Could he be talking about over-arrest? That’s not a factor, either, according to several studies. The U.S. Justice Department in 2004 delicately said, “To date, the research that has been conducted cannot confirm or refute whether officers discriminate against members of racial minority groups.” All of this is a far cry from a 400% disparity gap, which is what “four times as likely” is. IMAGE SOURCE: The Washington Post
Interesting how so many in academia and media resist attributing this rapid post-1994 crime reduction to the 1994 crime bill. I wonder how much this has to do with push-back on “mass incarceration” in the academy and validating anything that may support arguments that “being tough on crime” actually works. I’m more inclined to believe “top four”-ranked economist among his peers, Steven Levitt author of Freakanomics, who wrote a peer-reviewed article for the Journal of Economic Perspectives that argued two crime bill policies positively affected the crime drop: “Crime fell sharply and unexpectedly in the 1990s. Four factors appear to explain the drop in crime: increased incarceration, more police, the decline of crack, and legalized abortion.” IMAGE SOURCE: From Wikipedia using U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (Homicide Trends In The United States, 1980–2008).
It’s almost 2020 and arrest numbers are dropping significantly from 2010. When drug arguments are trotted out, the ACLU rarely mentions that 14% of black arrests and — coincidentally — 14% of white arrests are for drugs or that 5% are for marijuana possession. Nor do anti-incarceration advocates often mention that only around 20% of state and federal prisoners are serving for drug convictions. Though, I won’t deny ACLU’s advocacy hasn’t played a part in decriminalizing marijuana, I still question their honesty. More likely the argument that pot simply does less harm than alcohol played a larger role in its mainstreaming in society.
It’s simply a fact that behavior dictates discipline and black-white disparities that begins in K-12 schooling, not bias. But Democrats don’t largely believe that, according to polling such as this graph above. It’s easy to see why because of the way media and academia covers the subject of wide black-white disparities. Studies that control for previous discipline problems of black students based on teacher assessments prove no bias. Other studies and NY Times reports “proving” discrimination can be easily picked apart, and unfortunately that task is only done by conservative media, like The National Review. IMAGE SOURCE: Zach Goldberg’s Amazing Twitter Feed of Data Analysis (based on GenForward July 2017 Survey)

The Data

I’m currently working on a long-form working paper (or article) that I’m OPEN FOR COMMENT & FEEDBACK before I put into the world beyond a Google Doc. But I’ve heavily edited it, so if you have feedback, please place in the comments. Everything below is taken from here:


From from link above, I focus on #1 and #3 in this post:

1. Arrests are NOT proven to be racially biased, according to several studies.


There is likely some racial bias in sentencing. How much? Let me tell you: If there was no racial bias in arrests or sentencing, you may see under the “black men” column “1 in 3.3" rather than “1 in 3.” That’s the difference. The Sentencing Project isn’t going to tell you that. By their logic, this chart also tells us that men are “discriminated” against far more than women. Which, by the way, only men’s rights groups and the Factual Feminist Christina Hoff Sommers are going to accurately tell you that men get 63% longer sentences for the same crimes and women are much less likely to be charged. Who’s taking up that social justice mantle?
Indeed, as reported in the seminal book “Race and Racism in the United States: An Encyclopedia of the American Mosaic” NCVS survey data validates the black-white disparities found in FBI Uniform Crime Report arrest data. Basically, policing bias isn't a significant factor in exposure to the criminal justice system.
Facts like these upend the narratives that Democratic nominees are forced to bow to in the race for the White House. Perhaps because the American people recognize the limitations of political correctness and that is why they get turned off and vote for Donald Trump instead. I argue that until Democrats face some hard truths, they could lose again in 2020 — unless they can somehow convince more people that reality is not what it is. STORY SOURCE: Race and Racism in the United States: An Encyclopedia of the American Mosaic



Writer. Researcher. Designer. Human seeking better outcomes for all. Empiricism, relevant facts, and logical arguments > simple narratives.

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David Shuey

Writer. Researcher. Designer. Human seeking better outcomes for all. Empiricism, relevant facts, and logical arguments > simple narratives.