David Shuey

Apr 23, 2020

6 min read

What’s The True Fatality Rate for New York State & New York City from COVID-19?

Governor Andrew Cuomo Releases New Coronavirus Antibodies Testing Data April 23, 2020, and Here’s the Quick Data Rundown (& Here’s a Quick Answer: It’s 0.5%)

This all begs the question: Did Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York beat President Donald Trump and the federal government in providing some of the most key testing and data results since the Coronavirus pandemic broke out? Let’s put politics aside for a minute, though, and look at the results.
We’re trusting Cuomo numbers, as he had the experts run the data. But it doesn’t hurt to double check. (Spreadsheet link). UPDATE: Originally this article used the term “CFR” or Case Fatality Rate, but the more accurate term is “IFR” or Infection Fatality Rate which includes asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections.

More than 21 percent of around 1,300 people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week were found to have them, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday.

The results were from a state program that tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State. Nearly 14 percent of the tests came back positive, Mr. Cuomo said.

It would also mean that the fatality rate from the virus was relatively low, about 0.5 percent, Mr. Cuomo said.

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.

The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it.

With more than 19.4 million people residents, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

The study must be analyzed further to give a clearer picture, and it’s possible that it didn’t give a representative sample because it likely missed older people staying home as well as essential workers, Cuomo said. Still, the preliminary results appear to confirm predictions that the virus has infected far more people than New York has been able to diagnose.